Thursday, April 06, 2006
Overreaction and paranoia
I have talked quite a bit more than written about it, but I think the western world is totally overreacting to the threat of terrorism. It kills very few people in the West, and only has a real effect on the way we live if we make it so through paranoia and overcautiousness. The threats/changes that are and will become necessary from environmental problems and, I daresay, China, absolutely dwarf that of Islamic terrorism, or indeed all types of terrorism put together. There is nothing new to this and I think I understand why it is - it's the phenomenon called dread risk. Dead risks are, among other things, uncontrollable, involuntary, low probability but catastrophic if they occur. The uncontrollable aspect tends to explain why people fear flying so much more than driving. The WHO has a little schema, which I don't quite agree with, but is interesting nonetheless
One might say, what's wrong with worrying about it - these threats are real. Certainly they are, but it's a matter of priorities. I don't feel like going through all the arguments, but I'll give you one piece of data showing a bad consequence of dread risk. According to a paper published at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development:
And here's an example of how this overreaction, both on the part of government and ordinary people, has ludicrous results: A cab driver in Durham reported to cops that a guy in his cab was suspicious. The cops detained him, forcing him to miss his flight. What had he done that was so suspicious? While sitting in the back of his cab with headphones on, he had sung the lines: "Now war is declared-and battle come down." Omigod! Must be a terrorist! Or... he could be singing along to London Calling by The Clash, one of the greatest songs by one of the greatest bands ever. OK, it's not the end of the world, and we can all agree that Durham cabbies should be more musically literate - but what does this really gain us? And what songs should I be worried about singing in public? War? Oliver's Army? The Revolution will not be Televised? Burn Baby Burn?
One might say, what's wrong with worrying about it - these threats are real. Certainly they are, but it's a matter of priorities. I don't feel like going through all the arguments, but I'll give you one piece of data showing a bad consequence of dread risk. According to a paper published at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development:
People tend to fear dread risks, that is, low-probability, high-consequence events, such as the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001. If Americans avoided the dread risk of flying after the attack and instead drove some of the unflown miles, one would expect an increase in traffic fatalities. This hypothesis was tested by analyzing data from the U.S. Department of Transportation for the 3 months following September 11. The analysis suggests that the number of Americans who lost their lives on the road by avoiding the risk of flying was higher than the total number of passengers killed on the four fatal flights.
And here's an example of how this overreaction, both on the part of government and ordinary people, has ludicrous results: A cab driver in Durham reported to cops that a guy in his cab was suspicious. The cops detained him, forcing him to miss his flight. What had he done that was so suspicious? While sitting in the back of his cab with headphones on, he had sung the lines: "Now war is declared-and battle come down." Omigod! Must be a terrorist! Or... he could be singing along to London Calling by The Clash, one of the greatest songs by one of the greatest bands ever. OK, it's not the end of the world, and we can all agree that Durham cabbies should be more musically literate - but what does this really gain us? And what songs should I be worried about singing in public? War? Oliver's Army? The Revolution will not be Televised? Burn Baby Burn?
